28 Jul · 09:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
VK
🇺🇦Vasily Kondratenko
ELO 1412
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kondratenko
VS
🇺🇦Vladyslav Stukalov
ELO 1403
FormLLLWW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Stukalov🌟Stukalov covers set handicap as underdog 64% (111)
Fair odds · Kondratenko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H9-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.