28 Jul · 07:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VS
🇺🇦Vladyslav Stukalov
ELO 1403
FormLLLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Stukalov
OP
🇺🇦Oleh Ponomarenko
ELO 1363
FormWLLWL
54%
46%
🌟Stukalov rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (61)
Fair odds · Stukalov
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H31-27
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.