28 Jul · 07:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
IR
🇺🇦Ivan Romaniak
ELO 1559
FormLWLWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Rak
SR
🇺🇦Serhii Rak
ELO 1631
FormWLWWL
42%
58%
🔥 Underdog lean · Romaniak🌟Romaniak covers set handicap as underdog 63% (132)
Fair odds · Rak
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+72
H2H45-19
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+72)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (45-19)