28 Jul · 07:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VK
🇺🇦Valerii Kolesnykov
ELO 1560
FormLWLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Troyan
AT
🇺🇦Andrey Troyan
ELO 1593
FormWLLWW
46%
54%
🌟Kolesnykov covers set handicap as underdog 68% (69)
Fair odds · Troyan
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H33-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.