28 Jul · 09:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
LD
🇺🇦Ladislav Dobias
ELO 1625
FormLLWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Heinzl
LH
🇺🇦Lukas Heinzl
ELO 1629
FormWWWWL
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Heinzl🌟Dobias covers set handicap as underdog 68% (31)
Fair odds · Heinzl
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H28-39
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.