28 Jul · 08:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AD
🇺🇦Andrii Derevianko
ELO 1538
FormLLLWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Riadynskyi
YR
🇺🇦Yehor Riadynskyi
ELO 1616
FormLWWLL
42%
58%
Fair odds · Riadynskyi
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+78
H2H64-28
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+78)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (64-28)