28 Jul · 10:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TL
🇺🇦Tomas Liska
ELO 1496
FormLWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Makara
MM
🇺🇦Michal Makara
ELO 1508
FormLLWLW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Liska🌟Makara rarely covers set handicap as favourite 38% (45)
Fair odds · Makara
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H43-40
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.