28 Jul · 10:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AD
🇺🇦Andrii Derevianko
ELO 1538
FormLLLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Derevianko
IN
🇺🇦Ivan Nitchenko
ELO 1538
FormWLWLL
50%
50%
🌟Nitchenko stays under total as underdog 64% (45)
Fair odds · Derevianko
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 38% · 2.66· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+0
H2H8-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.