28 Jul · 11:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MZ
🇺🇦Matus Zelinka
ELO 1567
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Zelinka
MS
🇺🇦Michal Stibor
ELO 1561
FormLWLLL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Stibor🌟Zelinka rarely covers set handicap as favourite 25% (24)
Fair odds · Zelinka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+6
H2H4-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.