28 Jul · 12:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MZ
🇺🇦Matus Zelinka
ELO 1567
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Adam
LA
🇺🇦Lukas Adam
ELO 1576
FormWWWLL
49%
51%
🌟Adam rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (47)
Fair odds · Adam
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 38% · 2.67· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H4-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.