28 Jul · 14:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ID
🇺🇦Ihor Dubinin
ELO 1530
FormWLLWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Dubinin
SH
🇺🇦Serhii Honcharenko
ELO 1453
FormLWWLW
58%
42%
Fair odds · Dubinin
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+77
H2H26-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+77)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (26-5)