28 Jul · 15:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
LD
🇺🇦Ladislav Dobias
ELO 1625
FormLLWWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Dobias
SR
🇺🇦Stepan Rejent
ELO 1543
FormLWWLL
59%
41%
🔥 Underdog lean · Rejent🌟Dobias rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (141)
Fair odds · Dobias
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+82
H2H9-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+82)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-6)