28 Jul · 15:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OM
🇺🇦Ondrej Mezera
ELO 1517
FormLLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Mezera
MM
🇺🇦Michal Makara
ELO 1508
FormLLWLW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Makara🌟Mezera rarely covers set handicap as favourite 23% (26)
Fair odds · Mezera
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H10-25
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.