28 Jul · 15:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DB
🇺🇦Denys Boltnekov
ELO 1507
FormLWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kaganovych
VK
🇺🇦Vitalii Kaganovych
ELO 1540
FormWWWWL
46%
54%
Fair odds · Kaganovych
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.