28 Jul · 15:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
IE
🇺🇦Ivan Elfemov
ELO 1498
FormWWWLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Elfemov
VS
🇺🇦Vitalii Sydorenko
ELO 1436
FormWLWLL
57%
43%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sydorenko🌟Sydorenko covers set handicap as underdog 67% (87)
Fair odds · Elfemov
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+62
H2H7-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+62)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (7-6)