29 Jul · 10:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
HO
🇺🇦Hryhoriy Oliynyk
ELO 1473
FormWLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Hel
VH
🇺🇦Valerii Hel
ELO 1489
FormLLLWW
48%
52%
🌟Oliynyk stays under total as underdog 68% (40)
Fair odds · Hel
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+16
H2H3-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.