29 Jul · 10:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MP
🇺🇦Mykola Pohorilyi
ELO 1551
FormLWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sideltsev
SS
🇺🇦Sergii Sideltsev
ELO 1556
FormWWLWW
49%
51%
⚡ Cover lean · Sideltsev🌟Pohorilyi stays under total as underdog 66% (44)
Fair odds · Sideltsev
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 39% · 2.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+5
H2H10-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.