29 Jul · 09:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VK
🇺🇦Vladyslav Kovalchuk
ELO 1542
FormLWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Storozhenko
OS
🇺🇦Oleksandr Storozhenko
ELO 1561
FormLLWWL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kovalchuk🌟Storozhenko rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (129)
Fair odds · Storozhenko
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+19
H2H17-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.