29 Jul · 09:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
HO
🇺🇦Hryhoriy Oliynyk
ELO 1473
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Melnik
OM
🇺🇦Orest Melnik
ELO 1485
FormLLWLW
49%
51%
🌟Oliynyk stays under total as underdog 68% (40)
Fair odds · Melnik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 77% · 1.31· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H13-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.