29 Jul · 08:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VS
🇺🇦Vasil Salivonchyk
ELO 1529
FormLLLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Salivonchyk
VH
🇺🇦Valerii Hel
ELO 1489
FormLLLWW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Hel🌟Salivonchyk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (57)
Fair odds · Salivonchyk
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 35% · 2.82· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H0-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.