28 Jul · 23:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SA
🇺🇦Spartak Abalmaz
ELO 1580
FormWWWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Abalmaz
YK
🇺🇦Yan Krol
ELO 1562
FormLLLWW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Abalmaz
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.03· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+18
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.