29 Jul · 10:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AK
🇺🇦Anatolii Kovalenko
ELO 1475
FormLWLWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Osadchyi
OO
🇺🇦Oleksandr Osadchyi
ELO 1549
FormWWLLL
42%
58%
🌟Kovalenko stays under total as underdog 63% (27)
Fair odds · Osadchyi
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+74
H2H10-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+74)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-6)