29 Jul · 09:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MZ
🇺🇦Matus Zelinka
ELO 1586
FormLWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Zelinka
LA
🇺🇦Lukas Adam
ELO 1575
FormLLWWW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Adam🌟Zelinka rarely covers set handicap as favourite 22% (27)
Fair odds · Zelinka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+11
H2H9-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.