29 Jul · 07:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MZ
🇺🇦Matus Zelinka
ELO 1586
FormLWLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Dobias
LD
🇺🇦Ladislav Dobias
ELO 1639
FormLWWLW
44%
56%
🌟Dobias rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (144)
Fair odds · Dobias
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+53
H2H27-22
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+53)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (27-22)