29 Jul · 08:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇺🇦Michal Stibor
ELO 1570
FormWWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Rulc
LR
🇺🇦Lukas Rulc
ELO 1585
FormLLWWW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Stibor🌟Stibor covers set handicap as underdog 62% (32)
Fair odds · Rulc
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 38% · 2.67· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+15
H2H8-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.