29 Jul · 08:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
LA
🇺🇦Lukas Adam
ELO 1575
FormLLWWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Dobias
LD
🇺🇦Ladislav Dobias
ELO 1639
FormLWWLW
43%
57%
🔥 Underdog lean · Adam🌟Dobias rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (144)
Fair odds · Dobias
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+64
H2H28-21
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+64)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (28-21)