29 Jul · 07:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MS
🇺🇦Michal Stibor
ELO 1570
FormWWWLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Stibor
MM
🇺🇦Michal Makara
ELO 1523
FormWWLWW
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Makara🌟Makara covers set handicap as underdog 67% (139)
Fair odds · Stibor
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~74 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+47
H2H6-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+47)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-3)