29 Jul · 08:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
EP
🇺🇦Eduard Populovskyi
ELO 1482
FormWLLLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Osadchyi
OO
🇺🇦Oleksandr Osadchyi
ELO 1549
FormWWLLL
43%
57%
Fair odds · Osadchyi
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+67
H2H8-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+67)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-4)