30 Jul · 06:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MT
🇺🇦Mykolay Treschetka
ELO 1467
FormLLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kasian
DK
🇺🇦Danylo Kasian
ELO 1480
FormWWWLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Kasian
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 31% · 3.20· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.