30 Jul · 11:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OZ
🇺🇦Oleksandr Ziakun
ELO 1440
FormLLWWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Ziakun
SM
🇺🇦Serhii Miroshnychenko
ELO 1439
FormLLLLL
50%
50%
🌟Ziakun goes over total as favourite 72% (39)
Fair odds · Ziakun
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+1
H2H50-19
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.