30 Jul · 10:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SM
🇺🇦Serhii Miroshnychenko
ELO 1439
FormLLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kuzmenko
DK
🇺🇦Dmitro Kuzmenko
ELO 1464
FormWLLWL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Kuzmenko
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+25
H2H59-35
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.