30 Jul · 06:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DB
🇺🇦Dmitriy Belanchik
ELO 1425
FormLLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Maksymkiv
OM
🇺🇦Oleh Maksymkiv
ELO 1446
FormWLWWL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Belanchik🌟Belanchik stays under total as underdog 67% (12)
Fair odds · Maksymkiv
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~73 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+21
H2H2-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.