30 Jul · 09:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OL
🇺🇦Oleksandr Leonenko
ELO 1430
FormWLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Ovsiienko
OO
🇺🇦Oleksandr Ovsiienko
ELO 1471
FormLLWLW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Ovsiienko
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 34% · 2.96· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+41
H2H2-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.