30 Jul · 10:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
VS
🇺🇦Vladyslav Stukalov
ELO 1427
FormWWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kondratenko
VK
🇺🇦Vasily Kondratenko
ELO 1432
FormWWLWW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Stukalov🌟Stukalov covers set handicap as underdog 63% (114)
Fair odds · Kondratenko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+5
H2H10-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.