30 Jul · 12:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MV
🇺🇦Miroslav Vana
ELO 1484
FormWWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Vana
AD
🇺🇦Adam Dvoracek
ELO 1474
FormLLLLW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Dvoracek🌟Dvoracek covers set handicap as underdog 67% (57)
Fair odds · Vana
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H3-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.