30 Jul · 08:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
YZ
🇺🇦Yurii Zvolynskyi
ELO 1482
FormWLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Zvolynskyi
SH
🇺🇦Serhii Honcharenko
ELO 1450
FormLLWLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Zvolynskyi
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H39-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.