30 Jul · 12:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JB
🇺🇦Jan Blazek
ELO 1406
FormWLLLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Dvoracek
AD
🇺🇦Adam Dvoracek
ELO 1474
FormLLLLW
43%
57%
🔥 Underdog lean · Blazek🌟Blazek covers set handicap as underdog 64% (58)
Fair odds · Dvoracek
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+68
H2H13-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+68)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-9)