31 Jul · 11:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AL
🇺🇦Arsenii Lobanov
ELO 1532
FormWWWLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Kovshun
YK
🇺🇦Yaroslav Kovshun
ELO 1619
FormLWWWW
41%
59%
Fair odds · Kovshun
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 35% · 2.82· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
19%
0-3
18%
3-1
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+87
H2H4-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+87)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-2)