1 Aug · 04:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AK
🇺🇦Andrey Kotik
ELO 1509
FormW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kotik
OH
🇺🇦Orest Hura
ELO 1473
FormLWWWL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Kotik
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+36
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.