1 Aug · 08:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SR
🇺🇦Stepan Rejent
ELO 1540
FormLWWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Rulc
LR
🇺🇦Lukas Rulc
ELO 1581
FormLWWLL
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Rejent
Fair odds · Rulc
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+41
H2H39-24
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.