1 Aug · 10:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AF
🇺🇦Andrii Fastov
ELO 1401
FormLLLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kolos
OK
🇺🇦Oleksandr Kolos
ELO 1439
FormWWWWL
46%
54%
🌟Fastov goes over total as underdog 77% (30)
Fair odds · Kolos
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+38
H2H6-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.