1 Aug · 09:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MU
🇺🇦Miloslav Ullman
ELO 1475
FormWWWLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Rejent
SR
🇺🇦Stepan Rejent
ELO 1540
FormLWWWW
43%
57%
🔥 Underdog lean · Ullman🌟Ullman goes over total as underdog 65% (34)
Fair odds · Rejent
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+65
H2H18-12
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+65)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (18-12)