1 Aug · 07:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JB
🇺🇦Jan Botka
ELO 1481
FormWLLLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Botka
MT
🇺🇦Mikhail Taranko
ELO 1479
FormWWLLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Botka
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+2
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.