1 Aug · 08:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JB
🇺🇦Jan Botka
ELO 1481
FormWLLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kalensky
SK
🇺🇦Stepan Kalensky
ELO 1515
FormLLWWW
46%
54%
🌟Botka covers set handicap as underdog 69% (26)
Fair odds · Kalensky
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+34
H2H0-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.