2 Aug · 14:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DN
🇺🇦Daniil Novakov
ELO 1508
FormLWWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Novakov
OO
🇺🇦Oleksandr Ovsiienko
ELO 1492
FormWWLWW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Ovsiienko
Fair odds · Novakov
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 28% · 3.58· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+16
H2H4-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.