2 Aug · 13:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MM
🇺🇦Michal Makara
ELO 1567
FormWLWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Heinzl
LH
🇺🇦Lukas Heinzl
ELO 1617
FormWLLWL
45%
55%
🔥 Underdog lean · Makara🌟Makara covers set handicap as underdog 69% (153)
Fair odds · Heinzl
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+50
H2H14-12
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+50)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (14-12)