2 Aug · 12:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MM
🇺🇦Michal Makara
ELO 1567
FormWLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Rulc
LR
🇺🇦Lukas Rulc
ELO 1576
FormLLWWL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Makara🌟Makara covers set handicap as underdog 69% (153)
Fair odds · Rulc
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H32-34
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.