3 Aug · 07:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
YV
🇺🇦Yaroslav Vorsuliak
ELO 1504
FormLWWLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Shchegelskyi
DS
🇺🇦Dmytro Shchegelskyi
ELO 1561
FormWWLWW
44%
56%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vorsuliak🌟Vorsuliak covers set handicap as underdog 70% (103)
Fair odds · Shchegelskyi
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+57
H2H32-29
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+57)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (32-29)