3 Aug · 07:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MV
🇺🇦Martin Vana
ELO 1574
FormLWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Vana
MM
🇺🇦Michal Makara
ELO 1556
FormLLWWL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Makara🌟Makara covers set handicap as underdog 69% (153)
Fair odds · Vana
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+18
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.