3 Aug · 09:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AK
🇺🇦Andrii Kotiash
ELO 1538
FormLWLLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Troyan
AT
🇺🇦Andrey Troyan
ELO 1596
FormLWWLW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Troyan
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+58
H2H6-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+58)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-4)